Round 1 Is in the Books — And It Delivered
The 2026 NFL Draft kicked off Thursday night at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, and Round 1 had everything — a franchise quarterback going No. 1 as expected, a stunning quarterback surprise at No. 13, four Ohio State players in the top 11 picks, a historically offensive-line heavy night, and a running back going higher than any back since Saquon Barkley. Rounds 2 and 3 are tonight at 7pm ET, with Rounds 4 through 7 wrapping up Saturday at noon. Here is your complete breakdown of what happened and how to think about the rest of the draft from a betting perspective.
Mendoza Goes No. 1 — As Expected
Las Vegas Raiders officially kicked off the draft by selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick, ending months of speculation and confirming what the betting market had priced as a near-certainty for weeks. The Heisman Trophy winner and national champion steps in immediately as Las Vegas's QB1. At 6-foot-4 with elite accuracy and command in high-leverage situations, Mendoza is the most polished pocket passer to enter the league in several years. For the Raiders, this is the cornerstone of a rebuild — and for bettors watching the Super Bowl futures board, Las Vegas just moved from afterthought to watch list.
Ohio State Owns the Top 11 Picks
The Buckeyes put four players in the top 11 selections — a staggering haul that underscores just how dominant Ohio State's program has become as a pipeline to the NFL. EDGE Arvell Reese went fifth overall to the New York Giants. Linebacker Sonny Styles went seventh to the Washington Commanders. Safety Caleb Downs went eleventh to the Dallas Cowboys after the Cowboys swapped picks with Miami to move up. And wide receiver Carnell Tate went fourth overall to the Tennessee Titans — the first selection that surprised the market, which had Tate projected later in the top ten.
The Biggest Surprise: Ty Simpson at No. 13 to the Rams
The pick nobody saw coming. The Los Angeles Rams traded up from a later first-round slot and took Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at No. 13 — well ahead of where even the most aggressive projections had him going. The move is a clear succession plan for Matthew Stafford, who turns 38 this season. Simpson is a raw but electric prospect who posted a Heisman-caliber junior season and brings mobility Stafford never had. The Rams, who already sit as the pre-draft Super Bowl favorite at +750 given that Los Angeles will host Super Bowl LXI in February 2027, are now actively building for both the present and the future. From a futures betting standpoint, Simpson's arrival makes the Rams a more interesting long-term play — but does not change their short-window championship calculus with Stafford still under center.
Jeremiyah Love Goes No. 3 — Highest RB Since Saquon Barkley
The Arizona Cardinals made Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love the third overall pick — the highest any running back has been drafted since Saquon Barkley went second overall to the Giants in 2018. Love is a complete back with elite burst, receiving ability out of the backfield, and the kind of highlight-reel athleticism that justifies the selection. It is also a fascinating draft strategy call. Running backs have been historically devalued in recent years as the league has shifted toward pass-first schemes — taking one third overall is a genuine statement by the Cardinals that they view the position differently.
Nine Offensive Linemen in Round 1 — A Historic Night for the Trenches
The most striking theme of the night was the offensive line. Nine offensive linemen were selected in the first round — seven tackles and two interior players — starting with Utah's Spencer Fano to the Browns at No. 9 and ending with Utah's Caleb Lomu to the Patriots at No. 28. This is a historically deep OL class and teams clearly came in with a plan to address protection early. For bettors who had the over on OL props heading into the draft, Thursday was a very good night.
The One Prop That Cashed: WR Under
The over/under on wide receivers in the first round was set at 5.5 at BetMGM, with juice to the over. The final count was exactly five wideouts — Carnell Tate (4th), Jordyn Tyson (8th), Makai Lemon (20th), KC Concepcion (24th), and Omar Cooper Jr. (30th) — meaning the under cashed. Props like this are exactly the kind of market that rewards bettors who study positional tendencies and team needs rather than just following the public line.
Day 2 Tonight: What to Watch in Rounds 2 and 3
Rounds 2 and 3 get underway tonight at 7pm ET in Pittsburgh, and there is plenty of intrigue remaining on the board. Several top-rated prospects fell out of the first round and will be prime targets early in Round 2 — edge rushers, cornerbacks, and interior linemen all have strong candidates available. Day 2 is historically the best round to find franchise contributors at value, and teams with multiple picks in this range — the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Jets all hold significant Day 2 capital after last night's trades — have the opportunity to significantly shape their rosters.
What Round 1 Did to the Super Bowl Futures Board
The Rams remain the pre-draft Super Bowl favorite at +750, boosted by the hometown advantage of hosting the game in Los Angeles and the Ty Simpson pick signaling full organizational commitment. Kansas City's trade up to select cornerback Mansoor Delane at No. 6, followed by adding Clemson DT Peter Woods at No. 29, suggests the Chiefs are once again building through defense to protect Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders, despite getting their quarterback, remain long shots — franchise quarterbacks rarely produce Super Bowl contenders in Year 1. Watch the board closely after Day 2 tonight as line movement on team futures can present real value windows when a team lands a specific player it was targeting.
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